It seems that the idea behind Iran’s attack is to overwhelm Israel’s advanced defences with cheap drones, to give its more sophisticated ballistic missiles a better chance of hitting their targets.
It is a similar tactic seen elsewhere, says Justin Crump from the defence analysts Sibylline.
“Iran’s tactics seem to have drawn on lessons from Ukraine, where the same drones have been used mixed with cruise and ballistic missiles to overwhelm air defences,” he says.
A few months ago, we were taken to an Israeli Iron Dome battery. It consisted of a number of interconnected launchers each loaded with multiple missiles.
Each one is able to take down an incoming drone or missile in mid-air.
Iran seems to have calculated that getting past this system requires quantity as well as quality.
According to Crump, however, it is a strategy that is far from certain to succeed.
“Israel is not Ukraine; US and likely UK aircraft are seemingly helping destroy targets,” he says. “And the Israeli Air Force is highly capable. Moreover, Israel has various anti-missile systems that will be hard to overwhelm.”
The extent to which this unprecedented attack is able to penetrate Israel’s air defences, and the damage it can do, will likely influence the level of any Israeli response.
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