In 2004 historian John M. Barry wrote the definitive book on the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. Between 1918 and 1920, 675,000 Americans, many of them previously healthy young adults, died from a novel H1N1 strain of flu as it swept across the country in waves.
Comparing the current COVID-19 pandemic to the 1918 pandemic has been common in recent weeks. In an interview with CIDRAP News, Barry shares what’s the same, what’s different, and why he’s glad historians don’t have to predict the future.
When the coronavirus pandemic first began in this country, the president said it was no worse than seasonal flu. Did leaders in 1918 say anything similar during the first spring wave of that pandemic?
Yes. National public health leaders were saying things like, “This is an ordinary influenza by another name,” and, “You have nothing to fear if proper precautions are taken.”
We know the pandemic in 1918 was caused by an influenza virus, and a coronavirus is a different animal. But what are some similarities and differences in terms of the actual illnesses people experienced?
You know, it’s not clear how many people died from ARDS [acute respiratory distress syndrome] in 1918 or bacterial pneumonia. Some say the vast, overwhelming majority of deaths in 1918 were due to bacterial pneumonia, but I don’t share that view. There were very rapid deaths in a few days from symptom onset. That clearly wasn’t bacterial.
A difference is obvious in terms of spread. As your readers know, influenza has a shorter incubation period. The length of time COVID-19 takes to work its way into the body is considerably longer. The longer incubation period stretches everything out.
Influenza in 1918 to 1920 would burn through a community in 6 to 10 weeks, and then you forget about it. That’s not going to be the case with this. Whether COVID-19 results in a flatter, more continuous line or undulates is not clear.
The 1918 pandemic started with a mild wave of illnesses in the spring, and then 6 months later a fall wave that was more deadly. How did cities respond to the different curves?
No city closed in the spring; that was a mild wave, it was very hit or miss and was really only recognized in retrospect except in military camps. Even medical journal articles at the times said it looks and smells like influenza, but not enough people died [for it] to be influenza. The virulence was so different in the fall wave.
New York City didn’t close anything at all, a decision that was highly political. Chicago didn’t close schools or much of anything else, either.
Coincidentally, both Chicago and New York had more pronounced spring outbreaks—they were in the minority. But the spring outbreaks provided significant immune protection naturally.
What about other cities? How did they decide when to shut down?
There were no general lockdowns, the way we have today. Most cities closed saloons, theaters, places of public gathering, but no general closing. However, fear was pretty effective in keeping people home. There was tremendous absenteeism from work, whether out of fear or because workers were taking care of sick people.
The ship-building industry had good data. Workers were told they were important as soldiers, they had to work out of patriotism, and there was no sick leave. In addition, there was medical care available in the ship yards that was unavailable in civilian communities.
Even with those factors, they saw 40% to 60% absenteeism. My guess is the absenteeism was significantly higher in other industries.
Metropolitan Life concluded that more than 3% of all industrial workers died because of the flu, and remember how compressed the time frame was—6 to 10 weeks to pass through any community. So when 3.25% of entire population in a working age-group die in a matter of a few weeks, that’s a pretty good reason not to go to work.
What about opening up? How did cities make that decision?
It was a back-of-the-envelope calculation by public health leaders, usually pressured by the business community. The question was whether the local public health commissioner was strong enough to stand up to pressure.
After a few weeks, all businesses were insistent on coming out. And there was no radio or TV or Internet, so most people weren’t too thrilled with being at home, anyway.
As you watch the current pandemic, do you see any leaders, local or national, who are doing a good job? A bad job?
The governor of Georgia stands out as a liar or fool or both. Probably 70% of citizens know that COVID-19 transmits when you’re asymptomatic. The governor of Florida also stands out on the downside.
Governor Cuomo in New York certainly stands out in a good way in terms of communication. John Bel Edwards, here in Louisiana, has done a good job.
Speaking of Louisiana, New Orleans was one of the first cities in the current pandemic to sound the alarm that black Americans were dying more than whites. What sort of disparities were seen in the 1918 flu?
There were epidemiological studies at the time that showed the amount of space that people had was a factor in how many people died in a family—the poorer you are the more crowded you are. Clearly, there was a socioeconomic factor related directly to living space.
Each day, it seems, governors extend stay-at-home mandates. As a historian who has studied people in past pandemics, how long do you think can people maintain this?
As a historian, I don’t like to predict. You have to wait and see what the data is. There’s been better compliance with social distancing than I expected, and perhaps more compliance then some of the models expected.
On the other hand, certain pockets of people are paying no attention at all. Again, we wait and see what the data says.
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娛樂城
娛樂城
體驗金使用技巧：讓你的遊戲體驗更上一層樓
I. 娛樂城體驗金的價值與挑戰
娛樂城體驗金是一種特殊的獎勵，專為玩家設計，旨在讓玩家有機會免費體驗遊戲，同時還有可能獲得真實的贏利。然而，如何充分利用這些體驗金，並將其轉化為真正的遊戲優勢，則需要一定的策略和技巧。
II. 闡釋娛樂城體驗金的使用技巧
A. 如何充分利用娛樂城的體驗金
要充分利用娛樂城的體驗金，首先需要明確其使用規則和限制。通常，體驗金可能僅限於特定的遊戲或者活動，或者在取款前需要達到一定的賭注要求。了解這些細節將有助於您做出明智的決策。
B. 選擇合適遊戲以最大化體驗金的價值
不是所有的遊戲都適合使用娛樂城體驗金。理想的選擇應該是具有高回報率的遊戲，或者是您已經非常熟悉的遊戲。這將最大程度地降低風險，並提高您獲得盈利的可能性。
III. 深入探討常見遊戲的策略與技巧
A. 介紹幾種熱門遊戲的玩法和策略
對於不同的遊戲，有不同的策略和技巧。例如，在德州撲克中，一個有效的策略可能是緊密而侵略性的玩法，而在老虎機中，理解機器的支付表和特性可能是獲勝的關鍵。
B. 提供在遊戲中使用體驗金的實用技巧和注意事項
體驗金是一種寶貴的資源，使用時必須謹慎。一個基本的原則是，不要將所有的娛樂城體驗金都投入一場遊戲。相反，您應該嘗試將其分散到多種遊戲中，以擴大獲勝的機會。
IV.分析和比較娛樂城的體驗金活動
A. 對幾家知名娛樂城的體驗金活動進行比較和分析
市場上的娛樂城數不勝數，他們的體驗金活動也各不相同。花點時間去比較不同娛樂城的活動，可能會讓你找到更適合自己的選擇。例如，有些娛樂城可能會提供較大金額的體驗金，但需達到更高的賭注要求；另一些則可能提供較小金額的娛樂城體驗金，但要求較低。
B. 分享如何找到最合適的體驗金活動
找到最合適的體驗金活動，需要考慮你自身的遊戲偏好和風險承受能力。如果你更喜歡嘗試多種遊戲，那麼選擇範圍廣泛的活動可能更適合你。如果你更注重獲得盈利，則應優先考慮提供高額體驗金的活動。
V. 結語：明智使用娛樂城體驗金，享受遊戲樂趣
娛樂城的體驗金無疑是一種讓你在娛樂中獲益的好機會。然而，利用好這種機會，並非一蹴而就。需要透過理解活動規則、選擇適合的遊戲、運用正確的策略，並做出明智的決策。我們鼓勵所有玩家都能明智地使用娛樂城體驗金，充分享受遊戲的樂趣，並從中得到價值。
娛樂城
Prestasi Mahasiswa
Prestasi Mahasiswa
Kuliah Online
Kuliah Online
UHAMKA memberikan kemudahan bagi calon mahasiswa baru/pindahan/konversi untuk mendapatkan informasi tentang UHAMKA atau melakukan registrasi online dimana saja dan kapan saja.
Kuliah Online
UHAMKA memberikan kemudahan bagi calon mahasiswa baru/pindahan/konversi untuk mendapatkan informasi tentang UHAMKA atau melakukan registrasi online dimana saja dan kapan saja.
線上百家樂
線上賭場
線上賭場
台灣娛樂城/線上賭場（現金網）的特殊稱呼以及其歷史：
台灣對於線上賭場的特殊稱呼是「娛樂城/線上賭場（現金網）」。這種稱呼的背後有其原因，主要是因為線上賭場在台灣架設及經營是違法的。在早期經營線上博弈被抓的風險非常高，因此業者採用了「娛樂城」這樣的模糊代稱，以規避警方的注意。當時的網絡搜尋引擎尚未普及，這樣的代稱在一定程度上能夠達到避免被發現的效果。
台灣娛樂城/線上賭場的歷史可以分為幾個時期：
1. 網路未興盛時代：
– 現場賭場時期（1980年代）：賭博活動主要發生在實體賭場，包括家庭電話上的BB CALL呼叫器、六合彩、大家樂等方式。
– 電銷賭場時期（21世紀）：隨著手機的普及，人們開始使用手機進行博弈，主要包括中華職棒簽賭和六合彩等。
2. 線上博弈時期（2013年開始）：
– 網際網路普及後，原本的信用版博弈業者開始轉戰線上賭場（娛樂城），開啟了線上博弈的時代。
– 由於在台灣，線上賭場架設和經營是違法的，合法的線上賭場通常選擇在合法的國家進行架設。
– 開設線上賭場主要採用「現金儲值」的方式，以規避法律風險。玩家將現金兌換成賭資，進行投注。
3. 娛樂城商業模式的轉變：
– 早期的娛樂城業者往往將客服人員與金流（出入款）的職責綁在一起，
容易成為執法機關定罪的基礎。
– 現代的娛樂城業者開始將客服人員、金流服務商以及廣告行銷外包，以降低定罪風險。
– 由於遠端工作的普及以及區塊鏈技術的應用，未來娛樂城業者可能更加難以被追查，這也凸顯了博弈產業合法化的必要性。
娛樂城業者面臨的風險主要來自以下幾個方面：
– 架站主機：娛樂城業者通常在合法的國家進行架設，使執法機關難以從此方面下手追查。
– 客服人員：娛樂城業者可能在台灣設立辦公室提供客服服務，這也是執法機關可能進行搜索的目標之一。
– 金流（出入款）：娛樂城業者使用人頭帳戶進行金流操作，以規避監管機構的追蹤，但也存在風險。
– 行銷推廣：娛樂城業者需要進行廣告推廣來吸引玩家，行銷推廣方式也可能成為執法機關追查的一環。
娛樂城業者商業模式的轉變也反映了博弈產業的發展趨勢。隨著網路技術的成熟和商業模式的創新，博弈產業可能朝著合法化和監管的方向發展，以確保公信力、保護玩家權益並徵收相應的稅收。
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百家樂
百家樂（Baccarat）是一種撲克遊戲，也是賭場中常見的賭博遊戲之一。它起源於義大利，在15世紀傳入法國，並在19世紀盛行於英法等地。如今，百家樂是全球各地賭場中受歡迎的賭博遊戲之一，特別是在澳門的賭場中，百家樂賭桌的數量是全球賭場中最多的，下注金額和獲利也佔據著澳門賭場的領導地位。
玩法：
玩家可以下注莊家（Banker）或閒家（Player），並沒有限制。遊戲中使用8副撲克牌，洗牌後放在發派箱中。每局遊戲，莊家和閒家都會收到至少兩張牌，但不超過三張牌。第一和第三張牌發給閒家，第二和第四張牌發給莊家。根據補牌規則，可能需要再發一張牌給莊家或閒家。
點數計算方法：
在百家樂中，撲克牌的點數計算方法是：Ace牌算作1點，2到9的牌按其顯示的點數計算，10、J、Q和K的牌則算作0點（有些賭場可能將10點視為10點）。當所有牌的點數總和超過9時，只計算總數中的個位數。因此，8和9的牌點數總和為7點（8 + 9 = 17）。百家樂只計算撲克牌的個位數值，因此可能的最大點數是9點（例如，一張4和一張5的牌點數總和為9），最小點數是0點，也稱為baccarat（例如，一張10和一張Q的牌點數總和為20，只計算個位數，即0）。
投注：
玩家可以在莊家或閒家上下注，也可以下注和局（即最終點數一樣）。此外，玩家還可以下注莊對子或閒對子（即莊或閒首兩張牌相同）。在澳門的賭場中，還加入了「幸
運六」，玩家可以下注莊或閒是否能以6點取勝。
賠率：
如果下注莊家並且莊家贏，有兩種玩法可以選擇。第一種是買1賠0.95，即需要支付5%的佣金給莊家。第二種是「免佣百家樂」，贏1賠1，但如果莊家以6點取勝，則賠率為1賠0.5。下注閒家並且閒家贏，贏1賠1。下注和局，贏1賠8。下注莊對子或閒對子，贏1賠11。根據澳門賭場的「幸運六」賠率，以兩張牌的6點取勝為贏1賠12，以三張牌的6點取勝為贏1賠20。
機會率：
在百家樂中，下注莊家的期望值只有約1%左右的優勢，和大多數賭場遊戲相比相對較低。
結論
百家樂是一種簡單易懂的賭博遊戲，也是一個非常社交化的遊戲。在百家樂桌上，通常有一名荷官負責發牌和管理遊戲進程。玩家只需要在莊家、閒家或和局中選擇一方下注，然後觀察牌局結果。
百家樂的玩法優勢在於其遊戲節奏快速，且無需玩家做出複雜的決策。遊戲結果完全基於牌的發放和點數計算，使得玩家可以輕鬆參與，無需特別的技巧或策略。
此外，百家樂也因其高投注限制而聞名。在高額賭桌上，玩家可以下注巨額金額，使得這個遊戲成為富豪和高額賭徒的首選。然而，即使在小賭桌上，百家樂仍然吸引著許多玩家，因為它提供了一種緊張刺激的賭博體驗。
百家樂也具有一些特殊的傳統和儀式。例如，在一些賭場中，荷官會使用一把特殊的牌具，稱為百家樂靴（Baccarat Shoe），其中放有多副牌。這種做法旨在提高遊戲的公平性和隨機性。
總的來說，百家樂是一個受歡迎的賭博遊戲，不僅因其簡單易懂的規則，而且因其高投注限制和社交化的特性。無論是在實體賭場還是在網絡賭場，玩家都可以享受到這個刺激的遊戲，並期待著幸運女神的眷顧。
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